SWODY1
SPC AC 131612
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011
VALID 131630Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY/VT...
...NORTHEAST STATES...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS
THE REGION. ONE FEATURE IS NOW OVER MI AND WILL TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LAKES ONTARIO/ERIE AND WILL SAG
INTO NY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND STRONG
HEATING WILL HELP TO YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. MOST
MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF NY.
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK AS IT SPREADS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
...SOUTHWEST...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF AZ/CA/NV
TODAY WHERE AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. LIFT IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH POCKETS
OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS.
..HART/SMITH.. 09/13/2011
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