DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301959
SWODY1
SPC AC 301957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2011

VALID 302000Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FEW CHANGES FROM THE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...CONSULT DISCUSSION
BELOW. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS/VA...IN VICINITY OF COASTAL SEA BREEZES
AND ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
PIEDMONT AREAS. AMPLE HEATING/MIXING WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
DOWNBURSTS/ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAINLY PRIOR TO SUNSET.

..GUYER.. 09/30/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2011/

...MID ATLANTIC REGION AND CAROLINAS...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY
TODAY AS A STRONG PV MAX ROTATES FROM THE SRN APLCNS ENE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. CDFNT ACCOMPANYING THE UPR
SYSTEM WILL EDGE EWD FROM THE SPINE OF THE APLCN MTNS TO THE COAST
LATER TONIGHT. PRECEDING THE FRONT...CORRIDORS OF CONVERGENCE/LEE
TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS NWD
INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.

VSBL SATL SHOWS THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED E OF THE
MTNS THIS AFTN. CURRENT LWR/MID 60S DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY MIX AOB
60F THIS AFTN AND MODEST H5-H7 LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHERMORE...LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT WEAK...ALTHOUGH APPROACH OF STRONG DCVA WILL BE
INSTRUMENTAL IN ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE ERN
CAROLINAS TO SERN VA AFT 18Z. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS. HOWEVER...TEMPERED
INSTABILITY/LACK OF STRONG MASS CONVERGENCE WILL LIMIT SVR THREAT TO
ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS OWING TO RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

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