Saturday, September 10, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101606
SWODY1
SPC AC 101604

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...EAST...
TWO WEAK BUT PERSISTENT UPPER LOWS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CONUS
TODAY. ONE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL POSE A RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KS/OK INTO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.

...WEST...
A SECOND UPPER LOW IS OVER CA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES
OF MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN AXIS OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING ROUGHLY FROM
SBA TO LAS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THESE STORMS...STRONG HEATING AND
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL YIELD RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY. WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEMS
MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
OF SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN AZ LATER TODAY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
MARGINAL...BUT ORGANIZED MULTICELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..HART/DEAN.. 09/10/2011

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