SWODY1
SPC AC 211935
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2011
VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 20Z ISSUANCE.
..BROYLES.. 09/21/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
WI UPR LOW WILL EJECT ENE TO NRN LK SUPERIOR LATER TODAY...BEFORE
CONTINUING NE TOWARD JAMES BAY EARLY THU AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW
IN WRN ONT DROPS S INTO MN. VORT LOBE ON ERN SIDE OF WI LOW...NOW
CROSSING LK MI...SHOULD ACCELERATE NNE ACROSS LWR MI LATER TODAY.
FARTHER S AND E...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE...POSITIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE LWR MS VLY/SOUTHEAST
WILL TRACK NE ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS.
AT LWR LVLS...WRN-MOST COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WI
LOW IS NOW OVER WRN LWR MI. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY E
ACROSS LWR MI THIS AFTN...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
...ERN LWR MI INTO OH THIS AFTN/EVE...
MODEST INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC
HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER ERN LWR MI THIS AFTN AS SFC
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S F. AT THE SAME TIME...MID
LVL LAPSE RATES MAY SOMEWHAT STEEPEN AS UPR IMPULSE GLANCES REGION.
COUPLED WITH FRONTAL AND PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SETUP MAY YIELD A
BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS BY EARLY TO MID AFTN. GIVEN 30-35 KT MEAN LWR
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...DEEP LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND
FIELD...THE STORMS COULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED TO
POSE A SHORT-LIVED THREAT FOR DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN ERN LWR MI. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUE ENE
INTO CANADA.
...SERN STATES...
SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN MOISTENING/WARMING LOW LVL
ENVIRONMENT OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY AS WEDGE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO BE ERODED FROM THE S AND E. RESIDUAL SHALLOW LAYER OF
E TO ESELY LOW LVL FLOW MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ENHANCEMENT TO LOW
LVL SRH TO POSE A RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO DURING THE AFTN.
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