Wednesday, September 21, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211249
SWODY1
SPC AC 211248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2011

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF 60-70 KTS OF SWLY H5+ FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION TDY. A 1003 MB LOW VCNTY KDLH WILL
TRAVEL NEWD INTO NWRN OT THIS AFTN...WITH TRAILING FRONT EDGING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT ENE FROM THE SRN APLCNS TO THE MID-ATLC
REGION TDY.

...ERN LWR MI SWD INTO OH...
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BECOME WEAKLY BUOYANT THIS AFTN IN ERN LWR
MI AND PARTS OF OH AMID MARGINAL DIURNAL HEATING. MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN AS THE UPR LOW MOVES EWD AND WITH ADVECTION OF
60S SFC DEW POINTS NWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE. WDLY SCTD TSTMS MAY FORM INVOF THE FRONT THIS
AFTN AND COULD BRIEFLY ORGANIZE GIVEN FAST SWLY MID-LVL FLOW /H5
WINDS OF 60 KT+/. SUSTAINED STORMS MAY GIVE LOCAL DMGG WIND GUSTS
AND/OR LOW-END SVR HAIL. SVR THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

..RACY/COHEN.. 09/21/2011

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