Wednesday, September 21, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220036
SWODY1
SPC AC 220034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2011

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN...
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND EASTERN U.S...APPEARS TO HAVE RECEIVED
CONSIDERABLE SUPPORT FROM INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING UNDERWAY ACROSS MOST
AREAS...ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
03-05Z TIME FRAME.

ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COLORADO...WHERE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS ALREADY ONGOING...SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
INTO OKLAHOMA BY LATE EVENING...BEFORE CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THIS
IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO GENERALLY WEAK LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION...ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ACCOMPANYING A DIGGING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE.

..KERR.. 09/22/2011

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