SWODY1
SPC AC 101937
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011
VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 5% SEVERE LINE FOR MARGINAL
HAIL...BRINGING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE CA COAST. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
..JEWELL.. 09/10/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011/
...EAST...
TWO WEAK BUT PERSISTENT UPPER LOWS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CONUS
TODAY. ONE LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL POSE A RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KS/OK INTO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.
...WEST...
A SECOND UPPER LOW IS OVER CA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES
OF MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN AXIS OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING ROUGHLY FROM
SBA TO LAS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THESE STORMS...STRONG HEATING AND
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL YIELD RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY. WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEMS
MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
OF SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN AZ LATER TODAY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
MARGINAL...BUT ORGANIZED MULTICELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
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