DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111941
SWODY1
SPC AC 111939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

ADDED A SMALL 5% AREA ACROSS NRN MS...AL AND WRN TN AS STORMS FORM
BENEATH UPPER VORT/TROUGH AXIS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. STEEP LAPSE
RATE PROFILES SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE HAIL
STORMS.

TO THE E...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EXTEND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO
NY/PA AND THE DELMARVA. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
APPEARS TO BE FROM WV INTO VA...PA...MD AND DE...WHERE STRONG
HEATING...FORCING...AND RELATIVELY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE
JUXTAPOSED.

..JEWELL.. 09/11/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011/

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS WILL MAINTAIN A
RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MS/AL NORTHEASTWARD
INTO PA/NY AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY...WHERE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT AFTERNOON STORMS WILL OCCUR. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WV/WESTERN VA AND SPREAD
SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION THIS EVENING. STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING SUGGEST SOME RISK OF ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...WEAK
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT
THE COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS WILL BE QUITE LOW.

...AZ...
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL POSE A RISK OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES AGAIN TODAY.
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL AFTERNOONS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
FORM OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WHERE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.