SWODY2
SPC AC 020555
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
SRN GREAT LAKES...
...UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY AS
A COLD FRONT ADVANCES QUICKLY SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY NEWD INTO SRN LOWER MI
WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY MID-AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN THE INITIATION OF
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH A
LINE OF STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SUNDAY ALONG
THE MOIST AXIS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND 30 TO
40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST AS
STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. BECAUSE THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN MORE ISOLATED. A
LINEAR MODE WOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN THREAT.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED IN NERN NM...THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND SW KS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINING CLOSE TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN SE CO AND NE NM WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER THAN AREAS TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SE CO AND NERN
NM AT 00Z SUNDAY SHOW 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
SUGGESTING A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...LIMITED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REDUCE THE THREAT
SOMEWHAT.
...CNTRL GULF COAST...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING TROPICAL STORM 13 TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVE NWD TOWARD THE COAST OF SRN LA
SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINBANDS SHOULD EXTEND NEWD AND EWD FROM THE STORM
CENTER ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY IN
THE MS DELTA REGION SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD ENABLE
STORM ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE RAINBANDS. A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION BUT
THE THREAT COULD DEPEND ON WHETHER DISCRETE STORMS CAN DEVELOP. DUE
TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK KEEPING ANY TORNADO THREAT
MARGINAL.
..BROYLES.. 09/02/2011
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