SWODY2
SPC AC 150551
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2011
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE WESTERLIES WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE CONUS ON FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR/SPREAD EASTWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...AHEAD OF INCREASINGLY
PREVALENT BROAD CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW OVER WESTERN CANADA AND
CONUS ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A
COOL/STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WHILE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS
AS LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OCCURS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
...NM TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
THE PERSISTENCE OF A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS/CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW
COULD YIELD SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NM. OTHER DIURNALLY-AIDED/ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF THE SHARPENING
NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST
KS/FAR SOUTHEAST CO. WHILE A PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE
THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN EITHER CASE GIVEN A MODEST COMBINATION
OF INSTABILITY/VERTICAL SHEAR...ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY FROM MID-AFTERNOON FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND FARTHER EAST...SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
ALSO LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO
VALLEY AMID A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION/ELEVATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT REGIME. WHILE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL...CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE
OF ANY SEVERE HAIL THREAT AMID MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY /500-1000
J PER KG MUCAPE/ PRECLUDES SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..GUYER.. 09/15/2011
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