SWODY2
SPC AC 271720
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2011
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MIDWEST UPR LOW WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE ENE INTO THE LWR GRTLKS REGION
ON DAY2 AS IMPULSE OVER SW CANADA DIGS TOWARD THE UPR MS RVR VLY.
IN THE LWR-LVLS...BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD REACHING NY...CNTRL VA...WRN CAROLINAS BY 12Z THU.
TAIL-END OF THE SAME FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE GULF COAST WWD
INTO CNTRL/NW TX.
..MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
EWD TRANSLATION OF THE UPR LOW WILL FORCE A CDFNT INTO CNTRL/ERN
SECTIONS OF PA/MD/VA WED AFTN. SLY LLVL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL MAINTAIN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NWD WITH AFTN SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEG F. LOCAL DIURNAL HEATING WILL
BOOST MLCAPES 500-1500 J/KG AND BE SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING TSTMS
ALONG THE FRONT. STORMS WILL BE ALONG ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER SLY
MID-LVL FLOW OF 45-50 KTS ATOP WEAK SSELY LLVL FLOW...POTENTIALLY
SUPPORTING BRIEF SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE SMALL SPATIOTEMPORAL
INSTABILITY CONSIDERATIONS...WILL MAINTAIN SUB-CATEGORICAL SLIGHT
RISK SVR PROBABILITIES. SHOULD SUSTAINED STORMS DEVELOP...MRGLLY
SVR HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE PSBL.
...CNTRL TX TO SW LA...
VERY STEEP LOW/MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL EVOLVE AGAIN ON WED AFTN
VCNTY DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND WEAK LLVL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WDLY SCTD TSTMS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE WEAK...BUT MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 DEG BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL SUPPORT ISOLD PULSE SVR MULTICELLS
WITH DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL.
..RACY.. 09/27/2011
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