SWODY2
SPC AC 101722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN VA INTO SERN PA...MD
AND DE...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WITH AXIS
FROM OH INTO MS AT 00Z. SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KT WILL STRETCH
FROM THE MIDDLE GULF COAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM VA INTO SC...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH EWD LATE ACROSS VIRGINIA AND MD.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER SRN/CNTRL
CA...WITH AFTERNOON STORMS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.
...VA/PA/MD/DE...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR FROM VA SWD WHERE MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
F. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
DAY...WITH DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY ACROSS WRN NC AND VA AS WELL AS
OVER INTO SRN PA. COOL LAPSE RATE PROFILES ALOFT WITH FAVOR HAIL
AREA-WIDE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS WINDS
WILL BE FARTHER E BENEATH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES. IF STORM MODE
REMAINS CELLULAR...HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...IF STORMS CAN PRODUCE ENOUGH OUTFLOW AND FORWARD
PROPAGATE...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL.. 09/10/2011
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