SWODY3
SPC AC 130710
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OTHERWISE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT...EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COOL/STABLE AIRMASS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL EAST OF THE ROCKIES. IN
THE WEST...THE REMNANT SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER LOW WILL MINOR OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
...GULF COAST STATES...
IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. WHILE LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS/DOWNBURSTS MAY ULTIMATELY BE
WARRANTED...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY /NAMELY FRONTAL TIMING AND THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION/ AND THE PERCEIVED MODEST/LOCALIZED NATURE
OF THE RISK PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT
THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE.
...NM/FAR SOUTHWEST TX...
THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER LOW AND OTHER EMBEDDED
SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY...WHILE A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD PROGRESSING FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS INTERIOR NM/FAR SOUTHWEST TX. GIVEN INCREASING
MOISTURE CONTENT AND RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /30+ KT/ PER
MODERATELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT...SOME STRONGER STORMS
MAY YIELD HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ON A LOCALIZED BASIS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE REGION WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR SEVERE
PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
..GUYER.. 09/13/2011
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