SWODY3
SPC AC 140725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2011
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON
FRIDAY...WITH EXPECTATIONS FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE MISSOURI
VALLEY/MIDWEST AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-SHIFTING BROAD TROUGH CENTERED
OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL/STABLE AIRMASS WILL BE PREVALENT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...WHILE MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS LEE-SIDE TROUGHING OCCURS ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS.
...NM/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
GIVEN A MOIST AIRMASS/MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AS SIMILAR TO DAY
2/THURSDAY...SOME STRONG STORMS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR/SOUTHERN NM ON FRIDAY. WHILE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY
EXISTS...OTHER STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR ON AN ISOLATED BASIS NEAR
THE SHARPENING NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH AROUND PEAK
HEATING...AND/OR ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY
VIA A LATE NIGHT WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MOISTURE RETURN/POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND EXPECTATIONS FOR RELATIVELY MODEST
WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW/LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...PRECLUDE
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE.
..GUYER.. 09/14/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment