SWODY3
SPC AC 170730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY TO A
DEGREE OVER THE CONUS ON MONDAY. ONE OR MORE LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES
ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
...ARKLATEX/LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH VALLEY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MIDDLE
MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY VICINITIES. WHILE SOME WIND AND/OR HAIL
THREAT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS STORMS POTENTIALLY
INTENSIFY/INCREASE DIURNALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE OVERALL
SEVERE RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL/LOCALIZED TO WARRANT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE. THIS IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO
EXPECTATIONS FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
PREVALENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION/...LIMITED VERTICAL
SHEAR /25 KT OR LESS/...AND FRONTOLYSIS/WEAKENING MASS CONVERGENCE.
..GUYER.. 09/17/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment