SWODY3
SPC AC 190601
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2011
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A NNE/SSW UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AS THE INITIAL UPPER LOW LIFTS
NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NEWD FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD JAMES BAY...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH AND SRN
PLAINS.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES NWD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO PA WHERE 25-30 KT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS.
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NW OVER SERN
LOWER MI/NWRN OH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT MARGINAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VERTICAL
SHEAR...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW ATTM TO
INTRODUCE A THRESHOLD SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA.
..WEISS.. 09/19/2011
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