SWODY3
SPC AC 260707
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2011
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY DAY3 REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF OH VALLEY
UPPER LOW. GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE NAM IN UPSTREAM
SPEED MAX DIGGING INTO WI WHICH FORCES THE OH VALLEY LOW TO OPEN AND
EJECT EWD LATE IN THE PERIOD. DESPITE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IT
APPEARS AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WILL PROVE MEAGER BENEATH THIS
FEATURE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
ACROSS TX/LA...TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS
IDENTITY BUT REMAIN A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS NOTED WITHIN WEAK WARM ADVECTION
REGIME. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED ROBUST STORMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THIS
REGION THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL SHEAR DOES NOT WARRANT AN ORGANIZED
RISK THIS PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 09/26/2011
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