SWOD48
SPC AC 110844
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SFC COLD FRONT...DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 AND DAY-3 OUTLOOKS...WILL MOVE
EWD OFF NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLC COASTS DURING DAY-4/14TH-15TH.
SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIURNAL TSTMS BEFORE THIS
OCCURS...PARTICULARLY IF SLOWER SOLUTIONS SUCH AS ECMWF AND ABOUT
1/4 OF MREF/SPECTRAL MEMBERS VERIFY. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL APPEARS
TOO LOW ATTM FOR AOA 30% SVR RISK AREA GIVEN
1. PATTERN FEATURING FLOW ALOFT PARALLEL TO FRONT AND LIKELY WEAK
LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH
2. FRINGE/INDIRECT INFLUENCES ON MASS FIELD FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
MARIA...WHICH SHOULD BE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE BASED ON NHC FCST.
FOR SEVERAL DAYS THEREAFTER...LARGE/CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE IN LOW
LEVELS WILL COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN CONUS...KEEPING SVR THREAT TOO
ISOLATED...MRGL AND/OR DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FOR RISK
AREA AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
..EDWARDS.. 09/11/2011
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