SWOD48
SPC AC 130839
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COOL/STABLE AIRMASS WILL
INITIALLY BE PREVALENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MOISTURE
WILL OTHERWISE GRADUALLY RETURN LATE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES
PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS...WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING/FLOW ALOFT
GENERALLY RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN TIER AS PER 00Z-BASED ECMWF/GEFS
GUIDANCE. AS LEE-SIDE TROUGHING BECOMES MORE PREVALENT AND MOISTURE
RETURNS...SOME DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS/MISSOURI VALLEY BY AROUND SAT/SUN DAYS 5-6.
BUT GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR COINCIDENT WITH THE BRUNT OF THE
WARM/MOIST SECTOR...NO 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS ARE
CURRENTLY WARRANTED.
..GUYER.. 09/13/2011
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