SWOD48
SPC AC 170900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE ARE IN AMPLE LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PROGRESSIVE WESTERLIES EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS/CANADA PRIOR TO THE PATTERN POTENTIALLY AMPLIFYING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
PERIOD...NO 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
WARRANTED.
FOR DAY 4 TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY/SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS SUCH AS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY AND PERHAPS LOWER
MO VALLEY.
INTO DAYS 5-6 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/EVENTUALLY EASTERN STATES...WHILE SPREADING MORE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
RISK IS NOT EXPECTED EITHER DAY...AND SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY IS
OTHERWISE LIMITED AT THIS JUNCTURE.
..GUYER.. 09/17/2011
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