SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030432
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-030630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MS/AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 030432Z - 030630Z
NORTH-NORTHEAST PERIPHERAL BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE MAY POSE AN
ISOLATED/MAINLY BRIEF TORNADO THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN LA COASTAL
AREAS /ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST LA/ AND PERHAPS EXTREME SOUTHERN MS/AL
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. WHILE ANY THREAT MAY
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED...A TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
AS PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE A SLOW GENERAL NORTHWARD DRIFT TOWARD THE LA COAST AS IT
GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
PERIPHERAL WIND FIELD HAS SHOWN A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING...AS PER THE 01Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM SLIDELL LA
AND TRENDS OF LIX/MOB WSR-88D VWP DATA...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM LEE MOVES A
BIT CLOSER/MODESTLY INTENSIFIES.
IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT WEAK BUOYANCY/LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INLAND
AMID CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
CERTAINTY/MAGNITUDE OF A TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH
LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST LATE THIS
EVENING SOUTH OF THE HOUMA VICINITY. NONETHELESS...ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED 01Z LIX RAOB AND LATEST LIX/MOB WSR-88D VWP DATA
IS INDICATIVE OF 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 150-225 M2/S2...GIVEN
THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN VICINITY
OF A NEAR-SHORE CONFLUENCE AXIS. WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /MIDDLE
70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...THE DEGREE OF SHEAR/SRH WILL PROVIDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
..GUYER.. 09/03/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29369216 30079220 30549174 30699100 30748989 30758886
30658830 30378803 30218803 29098880 28948948 28879014
28809079 29009175 29369216
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