SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030456
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-030630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...IA TO FAR SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 824...
VALID 030456Z - 030630Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 824
CONTINUES.
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 824 CONTINUES UNTIL 09Z...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. A
SEVERE THREAT COULD SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
WI/NORTHERN IL OVERNIGHT...AND A WATCH MAY BE NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
FOR THESE AREAS.
TWO RELATIVELY DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO
STEADILY SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...ONE NEAR
THE WATERLOO AREA IN ADDITION TO ANOTHER NEAR THE DES MOINES/AMES
VICINITIES AS OF 0445Z. IN FACT...A 51 KT WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY
MEASURED AT WATERLOO IA. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
CORRIDOR NEAR/JUST NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT...WHERE A FAVORABLE
COLLOCATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR/MODERATE INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE EXISTS. WHILE THE LONGEVITY OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN FACTORS SUCH AS INCREASING NEAR-SURFACE
CINH...WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND EXISTING ORGANIZATION OF THESE STORMS
MAY ALLOW AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..GUYER.. 09/03/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 41339440 42069442 42449399 43109060 42868891 41688933
41299230 41339440
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