SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030620
SDZ000-NEZ000-030745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL THROUGH SERN SD AND EXTREME NRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 030620Z - 030745Z
STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH SRN SD AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME
NRN NEB NEXT 2-3 HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.
A COLD FRONT PARTIALLY REINFORCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION IS SURGING
SEWD THROUGH SWRN SD WITH NRN END EXTENDING THROUGH N-CNTRL SD AND
INTO ND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE EWD AND SEWD THROUGH THE MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA INDICATE A RESERVOIR OF
MODERATE MUCAPE ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE LAYER ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN SD
INTO NRN NEB...AND THIS REGION ALSO LIES ALONG NRN FRINGE OF STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME. FORCING ALONG THE SEWD SURGING FRONT AND
INFLUENCE OF DEEPER ASCENT FROM THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN STORMS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
THROUGH SRN SD INTO NRN NEB. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN 40-50 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE.
..DIAL.. 09/03/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 43460105 43849996 43839887 43269835 42589905 42480116
42880163 43460105
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