SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030840
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-031015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI AND EXTREME NRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 824...825...
VALID 030840Z - 031015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
824...825...CONTINUES.
PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WITH LEADING CONVECTIVE
LINE SEGMENT ACROSS SRN WI CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR MADISON THROUGH
ABOUT 11Z. SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NERN IA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL.
EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN LOWER MI THROUGH
NRN IL...SRN IA INTO NERN KS. THE WARM SECTOR IS CAPPED TO SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITHIN ZONE
OF POST FRONTAL ASCENT OVER SRN WI NEXT FEW HOURS. GREATEST THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND SHOULD PERSIST WITH LEADING FORWARD
PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENT ACROSS S-CNTRL WI MOVING EAST AT 30 KT
WHERE THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
/1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE/. FARTHER WEST ACROSS NERN IA INTO SWRN
WI...ACTIVITY HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED ABOVE THE OUTFLOW
FROM THE LEADING STORMS...RESULTING IN A MORE MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT. SRN EXTENT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROBABLY MORE SHALLOW IN
NRN IL AND REMAINS SKELETAL WHERE PRESENCE OF CAP COULD POTENTIALLY
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.
..DIAL.. 09/03/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 42939040 43358910 43418793 43058752 42418799 42419057
42629097 42939040
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