SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040435
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-040630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN
FL PANHANDLE.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 830...
VALID 040435Z - 040630Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 830 CONTINUES.
GIVEN ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF TS LEE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN MESOBETA
SCALE STRUCTURE OVER MOST FAVORABLE SECTOR...AREA OF PRIMARY TORNADO
THREAT HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SHOULD
REMAIN ESSENTIALLY OVER WW AREA FOR SEVERAL MORE.
SFC THERMAL AXIS HAS SHIFTED EWD SOMEWHAT...EXTENDING AS OF 04Z FROM
WSW BTR SEWD ACROSS MSY AND SW PASS AREAS THEN SWD OVER OPEN GULF
WATERS. ALTHOUGH NO LONGER BENEFITING THERMALLY FROM DIABATIC SFC
HEATING...INLAND ADVECTION OF CONVECTIVELY UNDISTURBED MARINE AIR
NEAR THERMAL AXIS IS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED BUOYANCY
ACROSS SERN LA...WITH MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG ESTIMATED BASED ON
MODIFIED LIX RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ACTUALLY
ENLARGE WITH OUTWARD EXTENT FROM CENTER ACROSS SERN LA TOWARD MS/AL
COASTS. STRONGEST 0-1 KM AGL SHEAR MAY REMAIN DISPLACED WELL INTO
PRECIP-INFLUENCED THETAE DEFICIT OVER INLAND SRN PORTIONS MS/AL.
TORNADO THREAT ACCORDINGLY MAY BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED OVER COASTAL
AREAS BETWEEN MSY-MOB WHERE NRN FRINGE OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY
OVERLAPS SRN PORTION OF STRONGEST SHEAR...THEN SSWWD ACROSS
CHANDELEUR ISLANDS AND MS RIVER MOUTH REGION. THIS SWATH ALSO
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT RELATIVELY DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODES THAT
BEST SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY TORNADIC MINI-SUPERCELLS.
REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST GUIDANCE ON THIS
CYCLONE.
..EDWARDS.. 09/04/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 30378642 30378687 30218898 30058882 29808882 29558901
29418926 29158892 28978915 29078927 28778950 29088940
29328979 29149012 29049071 29109092 29319141 29399121
29639163 29469177 29589212 29529237 30129263 31389204
31639119 31758947 31558818 31158670 30628627 30378642
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