SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051224
GAZ000-ALZ000-051330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT MON SEP 05 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN AL THROUGH CNTRL GA
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 051224Z - 051330Z
THE 13Z OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK FOR TORNADOES
AND WILL INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SRN AND CNTRL AL THROUGH CNTRL GA.
CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE CENTERED OVER SERN LA IS BECOMING
INFLUENCED BY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SEWD THROUGH THE OH
AND TN VALLEYS. AS A RESULT A GENERAL NEWD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY
WHILE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO EXTRATROPICAL. SEE LATEST
DISCUSSION FROM HPC. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTOGENETICAL
DEFORMATION AXIS FROM THE CENTER OF LEE NEWD THROUGH E-CNTRL MS INTO
NRN AL. FARTHER SOUTH A COASTAL FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SERN LA
THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN BACKED
TO SELY BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES WITHIN THE ZONE OF EXPECTED
STRONGER ISALLOBARIC FORCING. A 50 KT LLJ JUST EAST OF CYCLONE
CENTER WILL SHIFT NEWD THROUGH SRN/CNTRL AL DURING THE DAY AND INTO
GA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT HIGHER THETA-E AIR NWD THROUGH WARM SECTOR. THE COASTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FARTHER INLAND AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT.
BEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF COASTAL BOUNDARY
WHERE LARGEST HODOGRAPHS WILL COINCIDE WITH AXIS OF GREATEST
BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
..DIAL.. 09/05/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31378543 31568700 32968727 33908586 34128353 33058280
31378543
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