SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060347
VAZ000-NCZ000-060515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN NC...SRN/CENTRAL VA.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 844...
VALID 060347Z - 060515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 844 CONTINUES.
PORTIONS WW HAVE BEEN CLEARED FROM S-N IN STEP WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS. REMAINDER WW MAY BE CLEARED BEFORE SCHEDULED 08Z
EXPIRATION.
WHILE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS...IT IS BECOMING MORE
MRGL/CONDITIONAL WITH TIME GIVEN TWO PRIMARY TRENDS...
1. STABILIZING EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT PRECIP GENERALLY W OF
CHO-ROA-MKJ LINE...WHICH HAS REINFORCED PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC
ZONE...AND MAINTAINED OR EVEN INCREASED BOTH BOUNDARY-LAYER STATIC
STABILITY AND MLCINH.
2. GEN DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/DEPTH FARTHER UPSHEAR
OVER CAROLINAS/GA...RELATED TO COMBINATION OF LACK OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLIER PREFRONTAL MCS ACROSS
SC.
POCKETS OF MRGL INSTABILITY MAY STILL LINGER ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH
MLCAPE 250-800 J/KG...AND PERSISTENCE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SRH
CORRIDOR NEAR AND E OF BLUE RIDGE. ANY PERSISTENT CELLS THAT FORM
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY ROTATE...HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT E OF FRONT REMAINS RATHER NEBULOUS.
..EDWARDS.. 09/06/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 36668104 38037876 37747797 36497893 36268087 36668104
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