SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092000
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-092130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 092000Z - 092130Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON AIDED BY PLENTY OF MIDLEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER NERN AZ.
ASIDE FROM THIS RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY. HOWEVER...SOME ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES EXIST WITH
AROUND 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN AZ.
COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG...THIS
COULD HELP SUSTAIN SOME UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT /ESPECIALLY GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/...OR A
STRONG WIND GUST FROM TIME TO TIME GIVEN LARGE SFC
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS /30-40 DEGREES F/ AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.
..LEITMAN.. 09/09/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
LAT...LON 32680941 33600988 34661039 35071068 35551108 35791155
35891201 35861256 35841334 35691410 35511447 35131462
34471443 34091426 33221379 32361312 31841232 31501106
31451024 31450996 31600966 31900933 32680941
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