SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131415
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-131545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0915 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA...SRN NV...NW AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 131415Z - 131545Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS SRN CA...SRN
NV AND NW AZ THIS MORNING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM SRN CA NNEWD INTO THE
LAS VEGAS VICINITY ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT
RANGE WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM SUGGESTING
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ESTIMATED FROM 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
WITH THE GREATEST VALUES LOCATED NEAR I-10 IN SRN CA. THIS COMBINED
WITH A SLOW FORWARD MOTION AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS SUGGESTS A HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST.
..BROYLES.. 09/13/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SLC...PSR...VEF...SGX...
LAT...LON 34121722 34601610 35211584 36361589 36761568 37151523
37321455 37211385 36701350 36321344 35571360 34971380
34061424 33681464 33411502 33161565 33021599 32961646
33241707 34121722
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