SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131838
VTZ000-NYZ000-132015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND WRN NY...NH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 131838Z - 132015Z
A SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND NRN NY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW
ISSUANCE WILL PROBABLY BECOME NECESSARY ONCE THE TIMING OF
INITIATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SRN QUEBEC LOCATED ALONG
NARROW MOIST AXIS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD TOWARD
LAKE ONTARIO. AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BECOMES ENHANCED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE INITIATION OF A BROKEN
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 11 CORRIDOR FROM
NEAR CHAMPLAIN NY SWWD TO THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THE
LINE DEVELOPING EWD INTO NCNTRL NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST BOTH
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE. THIS COMBINED WITH
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40 KT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WITH WIND DAMAGE
A POSSIBILITY WITH SHORT INTENSE LINE-SEGMENTS. A THREAT FOR HAIL
SHOULD ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY WHERE MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE
COOLER AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE.
..BROYLES.. 09/13/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 44107301 44507279 44947308 45037376 45017453 44857540
44437615 44037654 43837700 43737823 43617888 43177912
42617874 42507786 42717590 43567381 44107301
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