MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2183

ACUS11 KWNS 171903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171902
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-172030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW/S CNTRL KS AND WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171902Z - 172030Z

A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

INSOLATION AND A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED
BY MID 60S+ F SURFACE DEW POINTS...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF
THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THAT AN AREA OF AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL OVERSPREAD STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE 20-22Z TIME
FRAME...ROUGHLY IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY GAGE...ENID AND MEDICINE
LODGE. VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION IS STILL FAIRLY
MODEST...BUT BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 30-40 KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET
STREAK...SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

..KERR.. 09/17/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 35729973 36159987 37110032 37520028 37739998 37739905
37559775 37199722 36789691 35509783 35329897 35729973

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