SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172149
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-172245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...NEB PANHANDLE...FAR NWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 172149Z - 172245Z
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL/STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NERN CO...NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR NWRN KS. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING
EWD ACROSS N-CNTRL CO AND S-CNTRL WY. INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...WHERE A PLUME OF MID-50S DEWPOINTS IS IN PLACE TO THE E OF
A STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE /ANALYZED FROM 30 W ITR TO 25 SE BFF AS
OF 21Z/. ALTHOUGH SCT CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE/...TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 70S AND HAS ALLOWED THE AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY /MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT
INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE. MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COMBINED WITH A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY ONLY
YIELD A LOW-END/ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL/STRONG WINDS...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
..ROGERS.. 09/17/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39760182 39230159 38890198 38880283 39160312 40190376
41320392 41980350 42130305 41880219 41420157 40260183
39760182
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