Tuesday, September 27, 2011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2210

ACUS11 KWNS 272016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272016
SCZ000-GAZ000-272115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL GA/W CENTRAL SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272016Z - 272115Z

STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND NEWD INTO W CENTRAL SC
SUGGESTS INCREASE IN MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE
DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ONGOING
ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO YIELD MIXED-LAYER CAPE 2000 TO
2500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY HAS FUELED STORM INITIATION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT....WITH A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARISING
FROM OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS AND AIDED BY MODEST SHEAR.

ATTM...DEGREE OF SHEAR APPEARS GENERALLY INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
WELL-ORGANIZED/MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT THAN HAS BEEN
ANTICIPATED WITHIN EARLIER SPC FORECASTS. DURATION OF THREAT SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN LIMITED -- AS PEAK HEATING GIVES WAY TO SLOW DIURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION. IN THE MEAN TIME...ISOLATED/MARGINAL
HAIL AND PERHAPS A DAMAGING GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..GOSS.. 09/27/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 32058446 32808452 33238334 34108177 34078074 33488089
31978224 31738289 31858385 32058446

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