WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 831

WWUS20 KWNS 040728
SEL1
SPC WW 040728
NYZ000-LEZ000-LOZ000-041500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 831
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 AM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
LAKE ERIE
LAKE ONTARIO

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 325 AM UNTIL 1100 AM EDT.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN NEW YORK TO 45 MILES EAST OF WATERTOWN NEW
YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 830...

DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING STORMS HAS
EVOLVED OVER LK ERIE...DOWNSTREAM FROM A BAND OF
DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER. SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS...THE MEAN FLOW IN THIS LAYER IS EXPECTED
STRENGTHEN TO ABOUT 35 KTS LATER THIS MORNING AS UPSTREAM UPR TROUGH
NOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS FURTHER AMPLIFIES SEWD. COUPLED WITH
RESIDUAL EML PLUME...SETUP MAY ONCE AGAIN YIELD SPORADIC DMGG WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS THE STORM CLUSTER CONTINUES
E OR ENEWD.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 26035.

...CORFIDI

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