SWODY1
SPC AC 011205
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2011
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER WV WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW. THE PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CAPE COD TO A LOW JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND...THEN SOUTHWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A CONSENSUS OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH ONLY A SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS TOWARD
COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SUPERCELL STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
OFF THE RI/MA COAST...AND OTHERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. IT STILL
APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE WITH
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND THE ASSOCIATED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
VERY LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT LEAVES SOME CONCERN FOR
A BRIEF TORNADO WITH THOSE STORMS THAT INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
THE PRIMARY FORCING SHOULD LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION BY THIS
EVENING...ENDING ANY SEVERE THREAT.
..HART/DEAN.. 10/01/2011
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