SWODY1
SPC AC 040510
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2011
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WEST COAST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS A
POTENT UPPER JET DIVES SEWD TOWARDS THE COAST. BROAD SLY DEEP LAYER
FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST...WHILE A STRONGER VORT MAX TRAVERSING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
INFLUENCES ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS ARIZONA.
FARTHER EAST...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL
QUICKLY PROGRESS NEWD IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES.
...ARIZONA...
A STRONG VORT MAX OBSERVED ON 05Z WV IMAGERY OFF THE SRN CA COAST
WILL ROTATE ESEWD...REACHING INTERIOR SRN CA AND SWRN AZ BY 00Z.
FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN COMBINATION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS AS LOW-MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AMIDST DIURNAL HEATING.
THINNER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS WILL ALLOW FOR
GREATER DESTABILIZATION...AND DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 750-1000 J/KG
BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...STRENGTHENED LOW-LEVEL
SLY WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS.
FARTHER N AND E...CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WILL LIMIT STEEPER LAPSE RATES...THOUGH AREAS OF CLEARING COULD
ALLOW FOR MORE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS...A FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
..HURLBUT/LEITMAN/BROYLES.. 10/04/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment