SWODY1
SPC AC 160444
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT ADVANCING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
UPSTREAM FROM THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH...A WEAK IMPULSE WILL ENTER THE
PAC NW THIS MORNING...AND THEN ADVANCE E-SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
W BY NIGHT.
...FL KEYS...
VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE FL KEYS TODAY ALONG
A ZONE OF CONFLUENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER...LOW AND MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. AS MORNING PROGRESSES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL ELY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN /UP TO 30-40 KT AT 1 KM AGL/...RESULTING IN ENLARGED
HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE AND INCREASING 0-3 KM SRH VALUES /NEAR 200 M2
S-2/. THESE WIND PROFILES COULD FAVOR BRIEFLY ROTATING
SHOWERS/STORMS AND A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO/WATERSPOUT.
...SRN CASCADES EWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ORE AND
CNTRL/SRN ID DURING PEAK HEATING. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES WILL
AID IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CASCADES TOWARD
THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS/SNAKE RIVER VALLEY OF ID ...WITH ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER WRN WY. THOUGH MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE MARGINAL /AOB 500 J PER KG/ OVER ERN ORE AND WRN/SWRN ID...THE
COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY SHEAR
/50-60 KT IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER/ COULD FAVOR A FEW STORMS PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL.
..GARNER/GUYER.. 10/16/2011
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