SWODY1
SPC AC 041233
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2011
VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NV/AZ...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
NYC...AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...AND ANOTHER
STRONG TROUGH SWEEPING ASHORE OVER CA/ORE/WA. A MORE COMPACT AND
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CA WILL
PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER MUCH OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND POCKETS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT
LEAST MARGINAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FROM SOUTHERN NV INTO CENTRAL AZ BY LATE
AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL POSE A
RISK OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT
THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN BELOW SLIGHT RISK
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY.
..HART/JIRAK.. 10/04/2011
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