Sunday, October 2, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021623
SWODY1
SPC AC 021621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT SUN OCT 02 2011

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FCST...
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SFC CDFNT TIED TO THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL E
OVER THE ATLC AND SWD INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO...SHUNTING THE
PRIMARY LLVL THETA-E AXIS AWAY FROM LAND. NUMEROUS PV FILAMENTS
ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW WILL PERIODICALLY ENHANCE THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NEW ENGLAND. FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT MRGL MUCAPE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR PSBL ISOLD NON-SVR TSTMS
THIS AFTN/TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...SCTD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THESE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LEADING BAND OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM ERN PAC TROUGH AND
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING ENE FROM NW MEX AND THE SWRN
STATES. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THE
STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF SWRN MT/WRN WY AMIDST STRONGER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT THE OVERALL SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW OWING
TO MEAGER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

..RACY/COHEN.. 10/02/2011

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