Thursday, October 27, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271235
SWODY1
SPC AC 271233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BROAD ZONE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY/TONIGHT FROM THE TN VLY WWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS ALONG/N OF A
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AHEAD OF A LARGE-SCALE UPR TROUGH. NO SVR
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

A STRONG SFC-BASED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS PORTIONS SE TX LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE AMIDST A MOIST LLVL
AIR MASS AND 40-45 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID-LVL INHIBITION WILL LIKELY BE DETRIMENTAL IN
SUSTAINING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...A MOISTENING AIR MASS/RETURNING FRONT MAY BE A FOCUS FOR
A FEW NON-SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT OVER ABOUT THE SRN
THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA.

..RACY/GARNER.. 10/27/2011

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