SWODY1
SPC AC 291627
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SAT OCT 29 2011
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE DE/MD COASTS WILL DEVELOP NEWD
TO JUST OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. TRAILING THE
CYCLONE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS S FL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS S FL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND POOR
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
FARTHER N...A BELT OF VERY STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA/FRONTOGENESIS
IMMEDIATELY N-NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL SUPPORT A WELL-DEFINED
PRECIPITATION BAND FROM THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG ASCENT COMBINED WITH WEAK SLANTWISE AND UPRIGHT INSTABILITY
COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION.
FARTHER W INTO THE GREAT LAKES...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SUPPORT WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FROM LOWER MI INTO OH THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 45-50 F AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S WILL RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES OF
100-400 J/KG. ASCENT AND THE RISK OF LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FOCUSED ALONG WEAK BOUNDARIES ACROSS SW LOWER MI AND FROM SE
LOWER MI INTO NW OH. THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR SMALL HAIL GIVEN
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES...BUT SEVERE
HAIL IS NOT EXPECTED.
..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 10/29/2011
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