SWODY1
SPC AC 050033
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2011
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT VORTICITY MAX OVER SRN CA WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH THAT
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST. DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW WILL SUSTAIN
GREATER MOISTURE ADVECTION NWD TO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH
BROAD HEIGHT FALLS SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST NWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MEANWHILE...COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO COASTAL THUNDERSTORMS OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW PROGRESSES CLOSER TO
THE COAST.
FARTHER EAST...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL FURTHER DEVELOP OVER THE
ERN CANADIAN PROVINCES...ALLOWING AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND TO EJECT NEWD TO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE.
...AZ/NM/FAR WRN TX...
A POTENT VORT MAX OBSERVED ON 00Z WV IMAGERY OVER INTERIOR SRN CA
AND SWRN AZ IS EJECTING EWD...PROVIDING FAVORABLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...EVIDENCED BY AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH
OF AZ AND NM. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SLYS IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR BRIEFLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTERS AND WEAK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS. MORE WELL
DEFINED CELL STRUCTURE IS NOTABLE ON 00Z VISIBLE IMAGERY NEAR THE
MOGOLLON RIM WHERE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S F
DEW POINTS ARE LEADING TO MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PROGRESSES EWD INTO NM. LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION EAST OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL HINDER SURFACE-BASED
POTENTIAL.
..HURLBUT/BROYLES.. 10/05/2011
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