Sunday, October 30, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 310059
SWODY1
SPC AC 310057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SUN OCT 30 2011

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPACT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING SEWD THROUGH
SWRN IA/NWRN MO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THIS FORECAST PERIOD DIGGING SE TOWARD THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS.
THIS EVOLUTION WILL SUPPORT A DEEPENING/AMPLIFICATION OF THE PARENT
UPPER/MID MS VALLEY LONGWAVE TROUGH TO ALONG AND JUST E OF THE FULL
EXTENT OF THE MS RIVER BY 12Z MONDAY.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED NWD
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TONIGHT AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TO SERN STATES AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING MS VALLEY TROUGH. THIS
DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION DEVELOPING NWD...WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH. SLIGHT
COOLING OF MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES INTO CENTRAL FL LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW FOR EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES TO BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. THE GENERAL TSTM AREA HAS BEEN
EXPANDED NWD TO INCLUDE MORE OF CENTRAL FL.

...IL TO LAKE MICHIGAN...
COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /-24 TO -28 C AT 500 MB/ ATTENDANT TO THE
MS VALLEY TROUGH WILL SPREAD ESEWD TONIGHT ATOP WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA
SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH WEAK...FOR ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A N-S ORIENTED COLD FRONT. THIS TSTM THREAT
COMBINED WITH DESTABILIZATION/TSTM POTENTIAL POSSIBLE OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS THE COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVE OVER THE
WARMER LAKE TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS A SECOND GENERAL TSTM AREA.

..PETERS.. 10/31/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: