DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 012002
SWODY1
SPC AC 012000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2011

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
NO CHANGES TO PRIOR FORECAST. ATTENDANT TO A SURFACE LOW NEAR
SOUTHEAST MA THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARY WARM/MOIST SECTOR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 10/01/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2011/

...SE NEW ENGLAND...
16Z SFC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE COASTAL WRMFNT HAS DEVELOPED NWWD
INTO FAR SE MA WITH A MESOLOW EVIDENT IN VIS SATL IMAGERY EAST OF
LONG ISLAND. LATTER FEATURE WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS FAR SE MA THIS
AFTN. SYNOPTIC LOW WILL TEND TO REMAIN/REFORM S OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT AS NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES
NEWD AROUND THE WRN VA UPR LOW TOWARD NJ/DELMARVA.

WARM SECTOR ACROSS SE MA IS CHARACTERIZED BY LWR-MID 60S SFC DEW
POINTS AND WITH MODEST INSOLATION /CLOUDS THINNING FROM S-N/ THIS
AFTN...MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 750 J/KG. TOPS OF ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS THAT MAY FORM NEAR THE FRONT MAY REACH INTO THE ICING LAYER
/HEIGHT OF MINUS 20 DEG C LEVEL/ AND ISOLD TSTMS COULD OCCUR
MID-LATE THIS AFTN. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
APPRECIABLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY OBSERVED /AOB 70 M2/S2 0-1KM
SRH/ AND ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WOULD ARGUE
AGAINST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVE. THUS...THE TWO
PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY HAS BEEN REMOVED.

BANDS OF CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER
ERN MA NWWD INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE APPROACHING COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WITH
CONCOMITANT INCREASE IN SELY LOW/MID-LVL FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

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