Wednesday, October 26, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261231
SWODY1
SPC AC 261229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN AND NRN AR...FAR ERN OK...SERN MO...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK NEEDED.

ELEVATED BAND OF TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED WITHIN 850-700 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND NOSE OF 45-50 KT WSW LLJ THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ENE
INTO THE LWR OH VLY BY AFTN. NO SVR WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO WARM AHEAD
OF A SEWD MOVING CDFNT ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS AFTN WITH UPR 50S/LWR
60S SFC DEW POINTS COMMON. RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SFC/NEAR SFC-BASED TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT MID-LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE AS CAPPING WEAKENS OWING TO SFC HEATING/SLIGHT
COOLING ALOFT. WSW UNIDIRECTIONAL 35-40+ KT FLOW ROUGHLY PARALLEL
TO FRONT MAY YIELD SMALL SCALE BOWS CAPABLE OF ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS
ALONG WITH MRGLLY SVR HAIL. THE SVR THREATS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
DARK...THOUGH TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE
MID-SOUTH/LWR OH VLY NEAR/N OF THE SEWD ADVANCING CDFNT.

..RACY/GARNER.. 10/26/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: