SWODY1
SPC AC 230018
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO NRN
TX...
...OK/NORTH TX/SWRN AR...
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED INVOF SEWD-MOVING
UPPER VORT ACROSS THE NERN QUADRANT OF OK. ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION
IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LLJ WILL
INCREASE OVER NCNTRL TX EXTENDING INTO SERN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED UPWARD GROWTH OF
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND AN EXPANDING MCS IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN OK INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
00Z SOUNDING FROM OUN EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE
OF 2500 J/KG AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR TO SUPPORT DEEP STORM
ROTATION. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS TWO PRIMARY SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...ONE OVER SRN CANADIAN COUNTY
DROPPING SSEWD INTO NRN GRADY COUNTY...THE OTHER OVER OKFUSKEE
COUNTY MOVING INTO NRN HUGHES COUNTY. OTHERWISE...NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE MERGING NORTH OF I-40...EAST OF I-35 AND
THIS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS PER EARLIER THOUGHTS.
..DARROW.. 10/23/2011
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