SWODY1
SPC AC 161904
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
REMOVED THE 2% TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS FAR SRN FL AND THE
KEYS...AS LOW LEVEL SRH IS VERY WEAK AND LAPSE RATES PROFILES ARE
POOR. THIS...COMBINED WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SUGGEST LITTLE
ROTATION POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
..JEWELL.. 10/16/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011/
A WEAK TROPICAL LOW IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTION
EXTENDS ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND MAY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
FL PENINSULA LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED ROTATING STORM
OR TWO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
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