SWODY1
SPC AC 101223
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2011
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CSTL GA AND SC...
...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE LWR 48
THROUGH TUE AS FAST NORTH PACIFIC JET CONTINUES FARTHER INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES. THIS WILL DRIVE DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NNEWD INTO CANADA...AND ENCOURAGE DOWNSTREAM COMPLEX OF UPR
DISTURBANCES OVER THE SERN STATES TO LIFT GENERALLY NWD.
HYBRID-TYPE LOW TO MID LVL CIRCULATION NOW OVER N FL IS THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE LATTER COMPLEX AS FAR AS SVR TSTMS ARE
CONCERNED.
...CSTL GA/CAROLINAS TODAY/TNGT...
NEITHER AFOREMENTIONED N FL MID LVL CIRCULATION...OR ITS SFC
COUNTERPART NOW W OF JAX...APPEAR LIKELY TO APPRECIABLY DEEPEN AS
THE FEATURES CONTINUE TO DRIFT MAINLY NW TODAY. GIVEN ABSENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL LOW LVL
DESTABILIZATION OVER MOST OF INTERIOR GA AS RELATIVELY COOL NNE FLOW
PERSISTS NEAR THE SFC. HOWEVER...A WEDGE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR IN NE
QUADRANT OF THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WNW INTO CSTL GA/SC
LATER TODAY/EARLY TNGT AS CSTL FRONT/MARITIME AIR MASS BOUNDARY NOW
ALONG THE CST ADVANCES SLOWLY WWD.
WITH MODERATE LOW LVL CONFLUENCE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN NE QUADRANT
OF THE LOW...AND WITH 40-50 KT ESELY LLJ LIKELY TO REMAIN CO-LOCATED
WITH HIGH THETA-E/PW AXIS...EXPECT THAT SCTD SMALL SUPERCELL STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE SHELF WATERS...WHERE GREATEST
BUOYANCY EXISTS. A FEW OF THESE MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
POSE A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS/BRIEF TORNADOES AND/OR LOCALLY DMGG WIND
OVER CSTL GA AND SC...ESPECIALLY AS THEY ENCOUNTER ENHANCED LOW LVL
SRH ALONG THE MARITIME FRONT. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVE
AS THE LLJ LIFTS NWD AWAY FROM LOW LVL MOIST AXIS...AND ALSO WEAKENS
IN RESPONSE TO BROADENING OF ASSOCIATED MID LVL VORT.
..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 10/10/2011
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