SWODY1
SPC AC 041955
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2011
VALID 042000Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN NV AND AZ...
LITTLE CHANGE APPEARS NECESSARY TO THE OVERALL FORECAST THIS
UPDATE...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF SWRN U.S. CONVECTION EVOLVING ROUGHLY
AS EXPECTED. STORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS
AREA...BUT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED ACROSS THE
REGION /REF. SWOMCD #2222/.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR
AND S OF THE FL KEYS...WHILE A STRAY STRIKE OR TWO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND..AND NEAR THE PAC NW COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 10/04/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT TUE OCT 04 2011/
...SRN NV AND AZ...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN INITIAL MID-LVL
SPEED MAX MIGRATING QUICKLY NWD INTO THE CNTRL GRT BASIN. A
COMPARATIVELY MORE POTENT PV-MAX WAS MIGRATING ACROSS SRN CA AND
WILL TRAVEL EWD ACROSS NV/AZ THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
WRN/CNTRL AZ DESERTS NWD INTO SRN NV AND THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION.
GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS SUGGEST THAT 0.75-1" VALUES WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND GIVEN COOLING MID-LVL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SOME INSOLATION...MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM
500-750 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BANDS OF TSTMS...LIKELY
DEVELOPING SWD FROM CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE CO RVR VLY AND
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE DESERTS THROUGH THE AFTN.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY AS NOSE OF A 50-70 KT
WLY MID-LVL JET APPROACHES THE REGION. THUS...ISOLD TSTMS MAY
BRIEFLY ORGANIZE INTO STRONG MULTICELLS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS...BUT
MARGINAL MOISTURE PROFILES WILL TEMPER THE OVERALL SVR THREAT.
SUSTAINED STORMS COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE SVR WIND/HAIL REPORTS BUT
WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
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