SWODY2
SPC AC 061729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2011
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MN SSWWD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE AREA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD
WITH TIME...THOUGH PROGRESS WILL SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE LARGE
CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. RIDGE. ONE SMALLER-SCALE TROUGH WITHIN THE
LARGER-SCALE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE...WHILE A SECOND PIECE OF
ENERGY SHIFTS ACROSS AZ AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE.
MEANWHILE...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE U.S. -- WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER LOW INVOF FL/THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP LOW INVOF ERN MT/THE WRN DAKOTAS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD INTO/ACROSS MANITOBA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
MN...BUT WILL MAKE MUCH SLOWER -- IF ANY -- EWD PROGRESS FARTHER S
FROM ERN NEB/KS SSWWD INTO ERN NM THROUGH 08/12Z.
...MN SSWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AREA...
WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS MN/WRN IA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WEAKER
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FARTHER S ALONG THIS BOUNDARY RAISES QUESTIONS
REGARDING INITIATION AND EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
PERIOD. LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FAST-MOVING
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SHIFTS INTO MN AND ACROSS
SERN SD TOWARD NWRN IA...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL
EVOLVING. FARTHER S...SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR PEAK HEATING.
WHILE THESE QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING INITIATION/COVERAGE...FLOW
ALOFT ATOP THE ENTIRE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE PLENTY STRONG TO SUPPORT
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. THUS -- ANY STRONGER/MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT WILL
BE FURTHER AIDED BY THE AVAILABLE SHEAR...AND THUS SLIGHT RISK/15%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS --
HIGHLIGHTED IN EARLIER FORECASTS -- APPEAR REASONABLE.
OVERNIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS SOME INCREASE IN
TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WITH THE DIURNAL LOSS OF
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN THUS
PRECLUDING APPRECIABLE TORNADO THREAT.
..GOSS.. 10/06/2011
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